The Hardest Part of Planning is explaining why you didn't !

Four years ago, the world had a preview of the disruption an influenza pandemic can cause, when a previously unknown virus called SARS appeared in rural China. 

When an infected doctor carried the virus out of China, it spread to Vietnam and Singapore and Canada within a month. 

Before long, the SARS virus had spread to nearly 30 countries on six continents.  It infected more than 8,000 people and killed nearly 800.  One elderly woman brought the virus from Hong Kong to Toronto, where it quickly spread to her son and then to others.  Eventually, four others arrived with the virus and hundreds of Canadians fell ill with SARS, and dozens died. 

By one estimate, the SARS outbreak cost the Asian-Pacific region about $40 billion.  The airline industry was hit particularly hard, with air travel to Asia dropping 45 percent in the year after the outbreak. 

All this was caused by a limited outbreak of a virus that infected thousands and lasted about six months.  A global influenza pandemic that infects millions and lasts from one to three years doesn't seem so far fetched any longer. 

Every winter, the U.S. suffers a regular seasonal flu that kills approximately 36,000 Americans and hospitalizes more than 200,000.  Here in the Rocky Mountain states it hits us worse - because of our high altitude and the fact that the flu virus thrives in colder climates. 

Terrible as these numbers are, health experts are now warning about a far more lethal kind of flu - the pandemic flu - could kill over 80 million world wide, cost the U.S. economy a staggering $70-$160 billion in lost productivity and direct medical expenses.

Public health authorities are particularly concerned about the H5N1 avian "bird flu" virus that could mutate into a new strain of flu against which humans would have no immunity.

And do you want to know the real tragedy of all this?  It  is not the flu that will kill us.  It will be our own ignorance.  People do not believe it will hit.  Perhaps they think that the CDC or the WHO are making these numbers up - I don't know.   I do know that people do not want to think about it.  They do not want to talk about it and I believe they feel that somehow - by not talking about it, it will go away.  Even our government officials feel that we are ahead of the game and that we will be able to stop any virus that crosses our border.  However now, it is these same County and City governments that are sending letters out to their primary vendors, requesting the vendor to disclose or come up with their pandemic plan. 

When another severe pandemic hits the U.S., life as we know it could be seriously disrupted.  Just do a simple trickle down impact study for your own business or even your own family and you will quickly see what we mean when we say you have to plan. 

Businesses and schools will shut down.  Travel will be restricted.  Essential government services - including sanitation, water, power, and social services - will be interrupted.  The food supply could be affected. If the U.S. is to meet this threat, every segment of our society must be informed and prepared. 

That is why we have created this area, and why we are conducting planning and "how to" seminars on this very topic.  We could be wrong.  We want to be wrong.

You could never see a virus outbreak, but you will not hear us apologize for the warning and the information.  All of us in this company, lived through the Spanish and Hong Kong flu outbreaks and we remember the minor disruptions they caused.  My Grandmother told me about the 1918 Spanish flu.  This current strain shares the same characteristics, except our population is much large, our means of travel is much faster and a lot more people will die from the next one.   

Not Just For Big Business. 

As a Contingency Planning, Disaster Recovery consulting firm with roots in the small business market we built a series of “how to” seminars.   We did this fully aware that most small businesses do not have the manpower, the finances or the skills necessary to develop the “ultimate pandemic plan “ but with enough information they could get a plan started or at least be enough aware that they could minimize the impact on their business. 

We developed this initiative in response to growing client concerns.  The Avian flu outbreak has spread from Southeast Asia to commercial centers in Asia, India, Middle East and Europe and now that a new strain has been found in China, it is one the move and becomes of even greater importance.  (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2006/10/30/1031MESHavian.html)

Traditionally Business Continuity Plans focus on the short term impact to physical assets – infrastructure, buildings and equipment.  But a pandemic plan targets your human resources.  To us that is the most important aspect of your business.   

In our planning we address key issues such as –

• What to do should you (could you – would you) be ordered to shelter in place.

• Would you – or could you stay home and work from home?

• What to do when you cannot get enough raw materials, subassemblies, or goods to sell?

• Emergency depots, Hot sites, Warm Sites, Work at home methodologies.   

• We will also talk about what to do when the demand for your products or services spike because your competitors cannot deliver or have been forced to shut down?

• What to do to protect your employees and critical operations or functions? 

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that we are currently at the Alert Level 3:   The flu has arrived in Asia, India, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.  Recently it has infected flocks in the UK, Russia and Iraq.  It is spreading.  When it goes to level 4 will be the day it jumps from out of small cluster and begins infecting unrelated individuals. 

We have but a narrow window of opportunity before it reaches North America and jumps to a form that permits human to human transmission which is the Stage 4 Level.  

Pandemics are far different than other natural disasters! You cannot stop a pandemic, but you can be prepared for it.  Remember, the hardest part of planning, is explaining why you didn’t.    

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